A Scottish View
The summer show season is drawing to a close and it has been great for the farming industry to get back out and about following the “covid years “. However, as the summer has moved on, the chat at shows has returned to concerns on margins driven by a dramatic fall in grain prices since mid-May. As grain prices have fallen we see inputs, especially fuel, fertiliser, and power costs remaining at shockingly high levels leading to concerns for margins.
Here’s hoping grain prices firm for the benefit of the Arable sector, although for the livestock sector high feed prices are posing severe challenges.
At Turriff Show in Aberdeenshire on Monday we held a meeting with Politicians. Included on the panel was UK Government Minister, Victoria Prentis MP. I mentioned the fact that record prices for fertiliser + Government Subsidies to Fertiliser Manufacturers = Record Profits for Fertiliser Manufacturers, an equation that doesn’t sit well with farmers! Within the response was a pledge from the Minister to get transparency into fertiliser pricing and also she stated several times that it is essential that orders keep being placed in order to keep the Manufacturing plants producing, despite prices remaining excessively high!
We certainly are experiencing an early harvest in Scotland to date. Winter barley crops are now in store and despite a very dry summer yields have in general been very good with yields in excess of 10t/ha being common. Six rowed varieties have produced mixed results with some crops offering decent yields but of very low specific weights whilst moisture contents have
been very acceptable. Straw yield also appears decent.
The OSR harvest has begun for some, whilst for others, the swathers/sprayers have yet to venture into the crop. Yields to date appear to be very respectable at 4.4 - 5.0t/ha being common and again moistures are pleasing.
The Spring Barley harvest is just beginning in early/lighter land soils but in the main, the harvest is 2 to 3 weeks away. In Scotland, the malting barley crop is a major part of the arable sector and hopefully, the drought doesn’t impact too badly on screenings/sample analysis. The Scotch Whisky Industry seems to be booming and with additional malting capacity being built around the country, the demand for malting barley should remain strong in the long term.
The winter wheat harvest also looks as if it will begin this month. August wheat harvests in Aberdeenshire, in particular, is an extremely rare occurrence.
Returning to the markets, Activity on Graindex is gaining momentum as new crop arrives in store. Grain listings have been lively whilst the amount of “Wanted “ Listings being posted by merchants continues to grow and are well worth looking out for! Big questions continue to dominate farmer conversations - where are grain prices going? Will grain get out of Ukraine? Will grain boats continue to follow the first one out through the Black Sea and where are fertiliser prices likely to be sitting by the year-end? Plenty of questions, not many answers, and thought-provoking debates are being had.
In the meantime, happy harvest.
Andrew Connon
Graindex Scotland
Vice President NFU Scotland
